Современные методы и подходы обработки информации по урожайности яровой пшеницы

Abstract

The productivity of spring wheat crops is the result of a complex interaction of many different factors. Construction of mathematical models, using modern methods and approaches, make it possible to explore and optimize the conditions of the environment in relation to the genetic program of a particular culture and thus increase crop productivity. We used the monitoring results of wheat yield for 32 years and eight major independent factors, affecting it: humidity, the effective temperature during the growing season, rainfall, vegetation period, gluten content, the weight of a thousand grains, grain weight from one ear, straw length. The factor analysis was used previously to improve the efficiency of the model. The use of this analysis led to reveal a latent correlation between factors, and group the data, thereby reducing the dimension of the problem. We obtain four main components (MC), corresponding a linear combination of factor loadings and factors, that describe the 83% of output factor dispersion. A part of dispersion, explained by MC1, is approximately 37%; MC2 - 21%, MC - 13% MC4 - 12%. Further investigation is to build and compare two mathematical models. The first classical model is deal with the construction of the regression equation and the second is a neural network research model, based on neural networks of multilayer perceptron type with one input, one output, and one hidden layer. The four major components are used as input parameters of the model. The models were tested on the input set and checked for adequacy of using Fisher’s exact test. As a result, both models showed good results, but more similar to the original data were the results of the neural network model.