Abstract
We are talking about natural disasters, such as flooding, which can be predicted a fewhours before they occur so that evacuation of the population can be organized. Evacuationmeans that people in disaster areas must leave these areas and reach shelters. The article pr esentsan analysis of the decision-making process on evacuation, the main criteria determiningthe decision and the main stages of using fuzzy logic to make a decision on evacuation based onqualitative and quantitative values of the decision-making criteria. These stages include selectionof criteria, determination of qualitative input and output variables, fuzzification of variables,definition of the base of fuzzy rules, construction of fuzzy inference, visualization of resultsand sensitivity analysis. When modeling, the following criteria were taken into account: thepredicted flood level, the level of danger, the vulnerability of the area of the expected flood andthe possibility of safe evacuation. The predicted flood level was based on the parameters of themaximum level and the rate of water rise. The hazard level reflected the physical characteristicsof the flood and its potential impact on the safety of people in the flood area. The vulnerabilityof the area of the expected flood was defined as the inability at the local level to prevent peoplefrom direct contact with flood waters during the event. The possibility of safe evacuation wasdefined as a set of limitations and potential negative aspects that could delay or hinder the successfulevacuation. The description of qualitative variable criteria for making a decision on theneed for evacuation, examples of determining the base of fuzzy rules are presented. The fuzzymodel is implemented using Matlab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox. The procedure of fuzzy inference andinterpretation of the solution and a model of several scenarios and flood situations are described.The method by which a fuzzy model of decision-making on evacuation can be applied incombination with a geoinformation system is considered. The actions related to the need forevacuation for various scenarios and circumstances are presented.
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