ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ФІНАНСОВИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ СУБ’ЄКТА ПІДПРИЄМНИЦЬКОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ: ВИБІР ОПТИМАЛЬНОГО МЕТОДУ

Abstract

The use of economic and mathematical methods for solving financial problems is an integral part of effective management of enterprise resources and making sound economic decisions. This approach is becoming increasingly important in today’s world, as the dynamism of the financial environment and the variety of factors influencing the economy require complex analysis and precise calculations. The use of mathematical tools also allows to reduce the risks of making wrong decisions and improve the quality of forecasts. The article considers the necessity of forecasting financial indicators of a business entity as a process of predicting future financial results and the state of the enterprise for effective management and strategic decision-making, which gives an opportunity to ensure better resource planning, timely response to changes and reduce financial risks, contributing to the business sustainability and success. An analytical straight-line alignment of the dynamics of the amount of net revenue from sales was carried out on the basis of the financial statements of a real enterprise; a straight line equation characterising the amount of revenue from sales was derived and its forecast value for 2024 was calculated. The equation of the second-order parabola, which characterizes the trend in the value of sales revenue, was also derived and its forecast value for 2024 was found. For each method, the value of the standard square deviation of the actual levels of the dynamic series from the adjusted ones, i.e. the relative error of calculations, was calculated, and the optimal forecasting option was chosen – the one with the smaller relative error. It was found that the straight line more accurately reflects the main trend of a series of dynamics, which characterises the amount of revenue from sales of a business entity. On the basis of this conclusion and the obtained forecast data for 2024, the lower and upper limits of the projected value of sales revenue were calculated. It is concluded that forecasting of the financial performance of an enterprise allows to find optimal options for further development and planning of business activities and is a promising and relevant direction of predicting trends in the development of an enterprise, contributes to effective management and making sound strategic decisions.