Перспективи розвитку співпраці України з ЄС у сфері трудової міграції

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the prospects for the development of Ukraine's cooperation with the EU’s countries in the field of labor migration regulation. It is established that in current time the international labor migration is one of the most characteristic manifestations of the globalization of the world economy due to the fact that now the number of recipient countries is about 67 units in comparison with 39 units a few decades ago, while the number of donor countries has increased from 29 to 55 units. It was determined that the main reasons for such changes are: global political crises and changes in the world coordinate system. The hypothesis was proposed and confirmed that, given the objective factors, including the political and the presence of the armed conflict in the country, emigration will only increase in the near future due to the state of the economy and the desire to receive material income. The cause-and-effect relationships between migration and the socio-economic state of the economy are considered by analyzing its main indicators, among them such as: population size, birth rate, education level and retention rate. The hypothesis was put forward and proved that the amount of the earned salary is one of the reasons for voluntary dismissal or reluctance to extend the employment contract. The geographical mapping of labor migrants from Ukraine in the countries of the world was studied. Key macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, (un)employment, remittance flows, international development aid and foreign direct investment are identified, which are crucial to understanding the effects of migration as they provide an overview of the economic situation of any country. The forecast values of GDP growth and GDP per capita of Ukraine was analysed in the context of putting forward a hypothesis regarding for the further migration tendencies. The necessity of regulating the negative consequences for the Ukrainian economy in order to counteract its decline in the future due to the decreasing in the number of economically active population in the future, which are the main producers of the country's GDP, has been established.