예측방법론 기반 연속형 계획 모델을 적용한 무기체계의 신뢰도 성장 계획

Abstract

Purpose: To develop the reliability growth planning for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model.BR Methods: The target MTBF of the subsystem is set by allocating the system target MTBF to the lower level, where ARINC method is applied. Other model parameters such as initial MTBF, management strategy ratio and average fix effectiveness factor are chosen from historical growth parameter estimates. Given the values of model parameters, the reliability growth planning curve using PM2-Continuous model is constructed and the sensitivity analyses are performed for the changes of model parameters.BR Results: We have developed the reliability growth plan for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model. It was found that the smaller the ratio of initial MTBF to target MTBF, the smaller the management strategy ratio, the smaller the average fix effectiveness factor, and the shorter the development test period, the higher reliability growth is required. BR Conclusion: The result of this study will be used as a basis for establishing the reliability growth plan, the test period setting and the budget appropriation for the similar system entering the system development stage in the future.