ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННАЯ ДЕЗИНТЕГРАЦИЯ ГОСУДАРСТВА И ОЦЕНКА ЕЕ РИСКОВ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ЭКВАДОРА)

Abstract

The article studies the processes of spatial disintegration, understood as the weakening, disruption and destruction of system-forming ties between the regions of the state, and determines the possibility of adverse consequences (risks) due to the impact of these processes. The authors’ methodology for assessing the risks of spatial disintegration involves seven factors: historical, socio-economic, domestic-political, ethno-cultural, transport, military-strategic, and foreign policy. The methodology uses parameters that make it possible to establish the effect of each of the factors. The risks of spatial disintegration are measured at two levels. The risk of disintegration for the whole state is calculated as the sum of the risk weights for individual factors. The weight of the risk factor is determined by the proportion of the country's population living in administrative-territorial units experiencing disintegration under this factor. The risk of spatial disintegration of a part of a country (a unit of administrative-territorial division) is determined by the number of factors under which this region has high risks of spatial disintegration. The object of the study is Ecuador. The structure and socio-political situation in this country demonstrate a combination of features characteristic of a Latin American state (sharp territorial contrasts in living standards, internal political turbulence, complex relationships with Indian ethnic groups, an extractivist model of development, technological dependence on developed countries, a high level of social stratification, significant crime rates, etc.). At the same time, Ecuador has a number of unique features compared with neighboring countries. These include the presence of a spatially remote region (Galapagos Islands), the compactness of the continental territory, a variety of landscapes, a bicentric model of regional development with the largest nodes in the capital city of Quito and the city of Guayaquil, an alternative capital and the largest seaport. The calculations showed that Ecuador has lower risks of spatial disintegration compared to other Latin American countries previously considered in other publications (Chile, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mexico). Among the territorial units of the country, the greatest risks of spatial disintegration are demonstrated by the provinces of Morona-Santiago and Pastasa, located in the east of Ecuador.