미래 기후변화에 따른 가정 및 상업 부문 에너지수요 변화 추정

Abstract

In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for resi- dential and commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on the national energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimal base temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calcu- lated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with a temperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against the energy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regression model and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a large decrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cool- ing but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.