«ОТРАСЛИ. УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ» – ПРОГРАММНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ДЛЯ НЕЧЕТКОГО АНАЛИЗА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ УСТОЙЧИВОСТИ ОТРАСЛЕЙ

Abstract

The aim of this article is to describe the implementation of the new “Industry. Resilience” software program for fuzzy modeling of industries and provide a brief overview of the scientific methods employed in the program. The “Industry. Resilience” program utilizes the following basic technologies in industry modeling: • Matrix aggregate calculator; • Structuring of industry indices using weighted average technologies; • Industry R-lenses; • Algorithms for intelligent data filtering; • Strategic matrix 4x6 in dynamic execution. Through the modeling conducted in the program, it is demonstrated that an industry maintains its economic resilience under the fulfillment of three basic conditions: a) preserving a minimum net profitability of 5–7%; b) achieving an asset turnover rate of at least 1.5 times per year; c) receiving government credit through supplier factoring, resulting in a financial leverage ratio of approximately 1.6. Together, these conditions are expected to yield a return on equity (ROE) of around 20% annually, ensuring significant private capital attraction to the industry, particularly with the provision of additional government guarantees for capital protection (a real option for businesses). The application of artificial intelligence technologies to economic analysis of industries (including their resilience) has already yielded impressive scientific results, but the main achievements are anticipated in the future with the accumulation of data and knowledge across a wide range of economic entities.