철도선로용량 부족에 따른 지체발생 연구 - 경부선 서울~금천구청 구간을 대상으로

Abstract

This research shows the relationship between the number of trains and the probability of trains with arrival delay and suggests way to estimate the benefits of improved punctuality in a bottleneck section of the Gyeongbu Line. The arrival delays of high-speed and conventional trains were estimated using the train operation data of KORAIL. Linear regression models for the probability of trains with arrival delay by train type are presented in this paper. The probabilities of trains with arrival delay were more affected by the number of conventional trains than by the number of high-speed rail trains. For the empirical analysis, a project for increasing the capacity in the Seoul~Geumcheongu office section was tested. The benefits of the improved punctuality were estimated to be 4.2~4.5 billion Korean won every year. This research has some limitations but it can help evaluate more precisely the feasibility of the project of increasing the capacity in bottleneck sections.