Постоянное структурированное сотрудничество в динамике и перспективе: «Остановка в пути»?

Abstract

Analyzing the recent developments of the European «permanent structural cooperation», the paper focuses on the second and third batches of PESCO projects. The author argues that the future of the Program is basically unclear, considering ambiguity of its relation to NATO. The European innovations in military technologies may develop along two lines – distancing from NATO’s capabilities or adapting to them. The Program itself is contradictory and controversial. Originally, it was positioned as an antithesis of NATO and the USA, but presently this thrust of the initiative is not at all evident. Analyzed are complexities of relations between US and the EU with respect to the Program. It’s argued that the confrontations in this area, that were growing more and more acute with the advent of D. Trump to the White House, in many ways stem from the reluctance of the EU to allow entrance of «third states», including US, to the European defence markets. Described are individual PESCO projects as well as mechanisms for financing them. With regard to political geography, the superiority in the projects implementation belongs to the Old Europe, while the Eastern European states are much less active and tend to collaborate with the neighboring states. Emphasized are differences in French and German strategic cultures, which determine the level of their participation in PESCO. It’s concluded that the further development of the Program will likely face serious difficulties and is, in fact, extremely difficult to predict.