Миграционный потенциал Казахстана в условиях современной геополитической ситуации (региональный аспект)

Abstract

The article deals with the migration potential of Kazakhstan in the example of the Pavlodar region bordering Russia. The authors noted that as a result of recent active migration processes, Russia and Kazakhstan are beginning to experience migration pressure. Such changes in migration processes require the improvement of migration policy, taking into account global trends and rules. Within states, there are negative consequences of ignoring migration problems, which are expressed in a decrease in the population in some regions due to its migration to more «rich» regions; the destabilizing effect of the retirement of the able-bodied population; the growth of illegal migration; expanding the shadow sector of the economy through the uncontrolled use of migrant labor; corruption; the danger of terrorist actions; undermining national security. For this reason, the article mainly focuses on the ability of the state to form and implement a national migration policy, increase the international prestige of the country, and the attractiveness of the region in domestic migration policy. It is concluded that migration processes have an ambivalent political assessment since they can have both positive and negative impacts. The authors propose recommendations for a positive scenario of migration potential not only for the population of the Pavlodar region but also for all border areas of Kazakhstan. In order to understand the benefits of migration, as well as to develop measures to counteract its negative impact, a comprehensive political analysis of all components of the migration processes of border states is required. In preparing the article, the authors used the results of the sociological survey «Migration potential of the Pavlodar region» conducted by the authors and the research group of the NAO «Toraighyrov University», commissioned by the State Institution «Department of Information and Social Development of the Pavlodar Region».