Важливість урахування результатів адитивного моделювання під час аналізу динаміки процесів

Abstract

Abstract. Introduction. In order to cope with such changes during the analysis, it is necessary to understand the essence of the methods and approaches that should be used by the researcher. The authors of this article aim to inform a wide range of scientists about the possibilities of using additive modeling not only to forecast data with seasonal and random components, but also to take into account its results at each stage of analysis to determine the essence (features) of the dynamics of processes (on the example of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation and Ukraine until 2026), as well as to compare its forecast data with the results of extrapolation using a sixth-order polynomial. The authors of this paper extrapolated the data of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation and Ukraine to 2026 using additive modeling. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to convey to a wide range of scientists the possibilities of using additive modeling not only for forecasting data taking into account the seasonal component, but also taking into account its results at each stage of analysis to determine the essence (features) of the dynamics of processes (on the example of data on the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation and Ukraine with a forecast until 2026), as well as a comparison of its forecast data with the results of extrapolation using a sixth-order polynomial. Results. Thus, based on the results of calculating the average percentage error, average absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination and the results of checking the adequacy of the model, the following conclusions were made: the specificity of the statistical data proposed for analysis (GDP of Ukraine and the Russian Federation) fully meets the requirements of additive modeling; there are no significant deviations from the average variation in the statistical data proposed for analysis, so the reliability of extrapolation is high; similar values in the changes in the average percentage error, average absolute. Conclusions. That is, to bring the extrapolation closer to reality, the value of the seasonal component was calculated. According to the results obtained, the dynamics of Ukraine's GDP, based on the data for 1986-2022, is more stable than that of the Russian Federation (1987-2022). According to the results obtained after evaluating the results of the two calculations, the following conclusions can be drawn: although Ukraine's GDP indicators reacted more sharply to changes in the national economy (sharper drops in the sample than in the Russian Federation's indicators), the extrapolation data of both approaches have a similar trend, which is evidence of a faster recovery of economic processes within the country; the results of extrapolation of the two approaches do not coincide, which indicates the presence of hidden processes in the national economy that have a significant impact on the dynamics of Thus, today the problem is not only in more realistic data forecasting, but also in the qualitative interpretation of the results at each stage of analysis to determine the essence (features) of the dynamics of processes.