Моделирование показателей эффективности производства сельхозпродукции с использованием метода Монте-Карло

Abstract

Algorithmic and software support for probabilistic break-even analysis based on the Monte Carlo method has been developed to assess the predicted values of indicators of the efficiency of agricultural production, using the example of milk production in the Irkutsk region. The initial data for calculating the efficiency indicators are the following: fixed costs; variable costs per unit of output; average unit price; milk production; the amount of subsidies. To assess the efficiency of milk production, the following performance indicators are selected: operating profit, profitability of subsidies, payback period of subsidies. The functionality of the created software is described. The software helps test the models of the initial data, display the test results on the interface, as well as in visualized form, using graphs and histograms to display. Based on the developed software there have been obtained the point and interval estimates of the listed efficiency indicators. A check of the compliance of the forecast value of operating profit with the real value of this profit in 2020 was carried out. There has been stated a relevance of these values, the real value fell into the confidence interval defined during the simulation. The functionality of the created software made it possible to assess with high accuracy the predicted values of milk production efficiency indicators. In the future, the software can be upgraded by supplementing it with other probabilistic models of the initial data, as well as by expanding the modeled efficiency indicators, which will allow for a more detailed assessment of the predicted values of efficiency indicators including other types of agricultural products.