Abstract
Recently, the topic of forecasting the financial insolvency of an organization based on public open data has become quite popular in domestic analytical science and practice. In general, all models are built according to the same principle: a sample of organizations from the bankruptcy register reveals certain dependencies between individual coefficients that must satisfy certain statistical tests. In fact, the researcher makes extensive use only of the mathematical (statistical) apparatus, not attaching importance to the logic and economic meaning of the represented ratios. Without at all belittling the role of mathematical tools in research of this kind, we note that any model should have a certain economic core that describes the logic and the nature of the influence of the proposed factors on the final result. The article is devoted to testing the most popular forecasting models at enterprises of the real sector in order to study the possibility of using these models in economic practice.
Highlights
The topic of forecasting the financial insolvency of an organization based on public open data has become quite popular in domestic analytical science and practice
All models are built according to the same principle: a sample of organizations from the bankruptcy register reveals certain dependencies between individual coefficients that must satisfy certain statistical tests
Without at all belittling the role of mathematical tools in research of this kind, we note that any model should have a certain economic core that describes the logic and the nature of the influence of the proposed factors on the final result
Summary
В последнее время в отечественной аналитической науке и практике довольно популярной стала тема прогнозирования финансовой несостоятельности организации на основе публичных открытых данных. Все модели строятся по одному принципу: на основе выборки организаций из реестра банкротств выискиваются определенные зависимости между отдельными коэффициентами, которые должны удовлетворять определенным статистическим тестам. Статья посвящена тестированию наиболее популярных моделей прогнозирования на предприятиях реального сектора с целью изучения возможности применения указанных моделей в хозяйственной практике. TESTING OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC MODELS OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION AT RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES. The article is devoted to testing the most popular forecasting models at enterprises of the real sector in order to study the possibility of using these models in economic practice. Целью настоящего исследования является тестирование зарубежных и отечественных моделей прогнозирования банкротства Целью настоящего исследования является тестирование зарубежных и отечественных моделей прогнозирования банкротства (табл. 1) на предмет их прогнозной ценности с применением больших массивов данных, представленных в форме бухгалтерских отчетностей российских организаций за 2016—2018 гг
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