ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ СЦЕНАРНОГО ПОДХОДА ПРИ КРАТКОСРОЧНОМ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИ ЗАНЯТОСТИ В РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ

Abstract

The average annual number of people employed in the regional economy is one of the key macroeconomic indicators characterizing its state and development, and also largely determining the state of the labor market in the region. Forecasting the dynamics of this indicator is a rather important task, in solving which it is necessary to take into account the scenarios of the development of the regional economy and the influence of the demography of the region. The purpose of this article is to present a modification of the complex of econometric models of a typical scenario approach for assessing the average annual number of people employed in the regional economy. To achieve this goal, methods of comparative, logical and statistical analysis, methods of modeling and short-term forecasting of the dynamics of a number of key macroeconomic indicators of the functioning of the regional economy were used. Along with this, the work uses standard methods for analyzing scientific literature on the issues under study, as well as a descriptive method for characterizing methods for constructing time series models and subsequent short-term forecasting of the values of their levels. As a result of the study, it is proposed to improve the models of the dynamics of the average annual number of employed in the regional economy and replace the insufficiently substantiated models for assessing the impact on this indicator of investments in its basic production assets with an econometric model of the dynamics of average labor productivity in the economic system under consideration. The constructed econometric models were tested for significance and adequacy by calculating the Fisher test, the coefficient of determination, and the Darbin – Watson test. For the target and baseline scenarios of the development of the regional economy, characterized by the corresponding values of the gross regional product, short-term forecasts of the average annual number of employed were formed, which were compared with the data published by the state statistics bodies and specialized divisions of the regional administration. The estimation of the forecasting accuracy was carried out by calculating the relative error between the statistical data and the forecast values of the considered macroeconomic indicator. The values of the relative forecasting error indicate the possibility and expediency of using the proposed models to solve the problems of assessing the dynamics and short-term forecasting of the average annual number of employed in the regional economy.