Влияние современного международного терроризма на основные мегатренды современной мировой политики

Abstract

The article analyzes the influence of modern terrorism on two megatrends of contemporary world politics – globalization and democratization, which are linked with three levels of political organization of modern world – the Westphalian system, the system of interstate relations and the political system of states. A simplified method of constructing a forecasting scenario is used, which provides a description of the influence of terrorism on the dynamics of the development of globalization and democratization in the future. The author relies on the ideas of a cyclical approach, according to which “upward” and “downward” stages are inherent characteristic of social and political processes. It has been established that modern international terrorism uses the uneven distribution of benefits from globalization and its unifying characteristics in the sphere of culture and social relations in its destructive ideology and practice. As a result, globalization in the least developed countries is perceived in a negative way, and the risks of local rollbacks for this phenomenon remain. Long-term recommendations are proposed to improve the current situation. A scenario of anti-terrorist struggle, its state and prospects, and the dynamics of the two selected megatrends in the context of those scenarios have been developed. Results. It is concluded that terrorism is a significant negative factor for globalization and democratization. The first feels the influence of terrorism at the local level and it is unlikely to become a de-globalizing force, while the direct or indirect influence of international terrorism on the dynamic of democratization waves can be more significant.