СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ПОСИЛЕННЯ ЗАГРОЗ БЕЗПЕКОВОГО СЕРЕДОВИЩА

Abstract

The article analyzes the level of economic security of Ukraine based on the assessment of the dynamics of indices and sub-indices (in terms of components) in accordance with the Methodological recommendations of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. On the basis of the correlation analysis carried out in order to establish the components of security, which mainly determine the dynamics of the integral level of economic security, it was established that the change in the level of economic security correlates to the greatest degree with such components as macroeconomic security (strong direct correlation), industrial security (strong and direct correlation) and foreign economic security (moderate and direct correlation). The obtained calculations proved that macroeconomic security risks increased in 2014-2015 (75% of indicators-indicators of macroeconomic security were in the critical zone), in 2016-2019 there was a decrease in the share of indicators whose values exceeded critical limits, in the period during the 2020-2021 pandemic, there was an increase in the number of risks (50% of indicators had values in the critical range). Based on the calculations, it was established that as of 2021, 75% of indicators had dangerous or critical values, which indicates the presence of systemic macroeconomic imbalances and threats to sustainable development. It has been proven that the war further increased the risks of macroeconomic security: the leading regions that created a third of the national GDP were the most affected by the invasion of the aggressor, the export of agricultural products was actually blocked due to the blockade of the sea ports of Ukraine by the aggressor, a total increase in unemployment due to the destruction of industry, infrastructure, the collapse of business, as a result, a sharp drop in the population's incomes and a refusal to save (78% of Ukrainians have seen their incomes decrease since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia). It is proposed to focus the Government's efforts on increasing labor productivity and using the consequences of the war as an opportunity to modernize the economy and the state apparatus, including the introduction of low-carbon production, improving the energy efficiency of the economy, and using achievements in the field of information technologies and fintech to improve public services. This will allow in a fairly short period of time to achieve all structural changes that would minimize the risks of economic security, in particular macroeconomic. Key words: socio-economic development, economic security, threats, security environment, structural changes.