Внешнеторговая политика Д. Трампа: риски и вызовы на уровне штатов

Abstract

The paper examines the dynamics of exports and imports by states under the President D. Trump’s foreign trade policy; the effects of the unprecedented tariff raising against the United States’ trading partners that keep world trade tensions and uncertainty at high level. While these tariffs provided some protection for certain American producers who face competition with imports, many other producers met with tariffs launched in response by other countries (mainly China) against the U.S.’ exports, which hurt them in different parts of the American economy. By the way, foreign trade policy is remaining one of the topics in the pre-election campaign in states that have both benefited or lost from new tariffs. The paper points out the distribution of exports and imports by states, including products that were mainly hurt by foreign tariffs. The blow of losses driven by tariffs on American agricultural products were softened by the United States’ agricultural subsidies, but the exporters are worrying about the prospect of further escalation of tariff risks which undermine their positions, about uncertainty at foreign markets. As polls show, a large part of registered voters do not believe that current trade negotiations may result in better economic conditions for Americans. The effects of new tariffs vary by states, but in some of them, D. Trump’s trade policy may play its role in the presidential elections, especially in counties more exposed to trade losses and having no gains from the United States’ tariff protection. The economic and trade agreement between the U.S. government and the government of China is of great importance, but seems unreal. Acknowledgements. The article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR). Project no. 20-014-00001А “Global and Regional Effects of U.S. Economic Policy in the Second – the Beginning of the Third Decade of the 21st Century: New Challenges and Chances for Russia”.