ОБЛІГАЦІЇ ВНУТРІШНЬОЇ ДЕРЖАВНОЇ ПОЗИКИ ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ КОРПОРАТИВНОГО ПІДПРИЄМСТВА
This paper asserts that domestic government loan bonds is an effective investment tool and offers a framework for evaluating government bonds as an investment instrument within a corporate business. The research findings demonstrate that the investment success of the corporate enterprise depends on domestic market bond liquidity and the risks associated with the external environment uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to assess the role of domestic government loan bonds within corporate investment policy. To achieve the research objective, the following methods have been employed: a synthesis – to identify the nature of corporate investment policy, methods of economic statistical analysis – to provide a government bond market analysis, and comparative structural analysis – to explore the preferences and benefits associated with the use of international practice in the area of developing a government debt policy. Data analysis for the period 2013-2017 indicates that the increase in domestic public debt in Ukraine negatively affects the companies in their decision to invest in government bonds. The operation of the united forces (formerly, the anti-terrorist operation) in Eastern Ukraine has triggered a 10 times increase in domestic public debt compared with the real GDP growth. The public increased to 143,2 billion UAH which was perceived as knock-on effects of inflation and 14% of GDP behind the banking crisis and the cost of its overcoming within 2014-2016. Corporate investing in domestic government loan bonds depends on the area of corporate enterprise operation. It is argued that companies with superior financial performance should invest in bonds, thus contributing to their further growth by creating a solid background for building competitiveness. High risks and low financial capacity characterize other sectors of industry, which company should wait for more information before investing in government bonds. High risks and low finance opportunities feature other industry sectors, and firms in these sectors should anticipate additional information prior to investing into the government bonds.
- Research Article
4
- 10.32782/2224-6282/179-6
- Jan 1, 2022
- Economic scope
The article shows that in a difficult period of transition from the administrative-planned to the market system in Ukraine formed the practice of state budget deficit and increase public debt in order to urgently address the acute socio-economic problems of society. At the present stage of development of the Ukrainian economy, the question of reducing the budget deficit and public debt has already arisen. To answer it, the study analyzes the state budget deficit and public debt in Ukraine and identifies effective sources of public debt repayment. It is substantiated that the basic direction of improving the situation should be the growth of the domestic economy. This statement is due to the fact that the size of the deficit and debt of the state are derived from the state of economic development of the country. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of sources of covering the lack of public funds. It is noted that the main sources are external and internal borrowing, and others – funds from privatization, sale of government securities, return of deposits – are not powerful and are not permanent. The article notes that during the study period there was a significant increase in public debt. This situation is threatening, as our country's dependence on foreign creditors is growing. It is noted that in the structure of our external debt, more than half are foreign government bonds (ODP), and the market for these instruments is very sensitive to economic and political changes in the issuer's country. It is proved that domestic government borrowing has certain advantages, because there is a redistributive process that does not cause rising prices. The study notes that difficulties in forming domestic public debt through domestic government bonds (IGLBs) in Ukraine are due to low living standards and insufficient development of the securities market. It is concluded that the significant pres-sure of domestic public debt on the domestic economy can be reduced only by implementing measures to strengthen investment processes and development on this basis of domestic production.
- Research Article
1
- 10.31470/2306-546x-2019-43-204-212
- Nov 20, 2019
- University Economic Bulletin
Relevance of research topic. The constant growth of Ukraine's public debt requires effective management of it. The larger the amount of debt, the harder it is to serve the state, so this topic is especially relevant in the context of those economic situations in which Ukraine has been during the recent years of the hybrid war with Russia and the protracted financial crisis. Formulation of the problem. The social and economic significance of public debt is increasing every year, because it is linked to the country's debt security, which affects the budget capacity of the state. The problem is the search of ways to improve the mechanism of public debt management in the direction of strengthening Ukraine's debt security, which since independence has been living at the expense of IMF loans. Analysis of recent research and publications. The theoretical foundations of state debt and debt security, methodological approaches to its evaluation, the formation of a mechanism for providing debt security and its management were highlighted in the works of O. Baranovsky, D. Boyko, Z. Varnaliy, V. Kozyuk, M. Kubai, O. Cheberyako and other scientists. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. Despite the rather deep theoretical study of the issue of debt security of the state, it should be noted that there is a need for its further study taking into account the specifics of the national economic situation and the strategic course of Ukraine on European integration. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The purpose of the article is to study the state of debt security in Ukraine by analyzing the dynamics of public debt and developing recommendations for raising the level of debt security of the country. A specific goal has necessitated the following tasks: to study the theoretical foundations of state debt and debt security; to analyze the dynamics of changes in the state debt of Ukraine and the state of national debt security; to determine the problems of management of the state debt, which resulted in the existing state of debt security in Ukraine; to propose of ways to optimize public debt to strengthen debt security. Method or methodology for conducting research. During the research historical, analytical-empirical, inductive-deductive, comparative research methods were used to implement the principle of objectivity of scientific presentation, as well as in the determination of the debt condition of Ukraine, tools of economic-mathematical modeling and graphical presentation of research results were used. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The work is disclosed the theoretical foundations of the state debt, shows his place in economic research and the influence on the debt security of the state. The condition of the state debt of Ukraine is analyzed. The features and rationale for strengthening the debt security of Ukraine through the prism of improving the mechanism for managing and servicing the public debt are disclosed. The field of application of results. The results of the study can be used in the theory and practice of public debt management. The assessment of debt indicators and their analysis will be an expedient source of information for developing ways to strengthen Ukraine's debt security. Conclusions according to the article. One of the main components of financial security is debt security. The role of its decisive component - public debt - determines the priority of public debt management and its servicing, which is an important condition for the stability of the financial system of the state and security. Debt security of Ukraine is in an unsatisfactory state, for improvement it is necessary to improve the debt policy of the state and debt management.
- Research Article
- 10.18371/fcaptp.v3i34.215512
- Sep 30, 2020
- Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice
The paper empirically explores the impact of external public debt in Ukraine on key macroeconomic indicators such as real GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, and current account balance. The problem of increasing external debt affects not only the problems of balance of payments fluctuations but also economic security and economic growth. We have tested the hypotheses regarding the impact of Ukraine’s external public debt on these indicators in the short and long run. As an empirical tool for hypotheses testing vector autoregression models (VaR models) have been chosen. The results of constructed models show the acceleration of the external public debt growth provokes the GDP growth rate to fall with subsequent macrostabilization. The reaction of the GDP growth rate to the shock of the real effective exchange rate is more noticeable. The shock of real effective exchange rate has led to increase in external public debt with a further dampening to zero.Empirical data from the VaR model confirm that external debt has a negative impact on GDP and essentially behaves similarly to the shock of REER strengthening. Research results confirm the relationship between external public debt, real effective exchange rate, and GDP growth in Ukraine. Based on the models it was analyzed the external public debt and real effective exchange rate shocks influence the real gross domestic product growth rate. The growth of external public debt leads to the GDP growth rate fall by 1% during a year and a half with subsequent stabilization in the future. GDP growth fluctuations are explained mainly by their own fluctuations while external public debt is accounting for 2,5—8% of its fluctuations. Fluctuations in external public debt of 7—10% are explained by current account fluctuations in Ukraine. The described results of the model correspond to the concept of dependent economy.
- Research Article
- 10.32782/2304-0920/2-104-6
- Jan 1, 2025
- Odesa National University Herald. Economy
The article provides a detailed analysis of the state of Ukraine’s public and state-guaranteed debt and the effectiveness of its management in today's difficult conditions. The concept of “Public Debt” is considered in accordance with the current legislation of Ukraine and an explanation of its general structure is provided, namely the internal and external components of the debt. The interpretation of the concept of “Public Debt Management” is highlighted. The main reasons for the growth of public debt in Ukraine are summarized. The activities of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine regarding public and state-guaranteed debt are analyzed and the medium-term public debt management strategy developed by it for 2024–2026, which is being implemented in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine, is considered. The structure and dynamics of Ukraine’s public debt over the past 5 years, namely 2020–2024, are studied and analyzed. As part of the analysis, both public and state-guaranteed debt, as well as indicators of external and internal debt separately, were analyzed. The shares of domestic and external debt in the total amount of Ukraine’s public debt were determined. The types of international financial assistance that have the greatest impact on Ukraine's external public debt were summarized. In addition, during the work, the growth rate of Ukraine’s public debt was analyzed, and at the same time, the growth rates of domestic and external public debt were analyzed. The public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine was also characterized by currency as of the end of 2024. As one of the main indicators in the analysis of public debt, data on the comparison of the principal amount of public debt to the actual annual volume of GDP were provided. As part of the analysis, a number of problems were identified that the Ukrainian economy is currently facing due to the constant growth of public debt. The measures that the public debt management policy should implement to stabilize the economic situation in Ukraine for both domestic and external debt were summarized.
- Research Article
1
- 10.31521/modecon.v29(2021)-19
- Oct 20, 2021
- Modern Economics
Abstract. Introduction. Nowadays, Ukraine’s economy, as well as other economies, suffers from the global crisis due to Covid-2019. Expenditures of the country increase with a considerable rapidity, especially on healthcare and social protection. Taking into consideration the fact that accumulated budget revenues do not always cover the necessary expenses, country is in need to take credits to cover the budget deficit, which arises. These loans constitute public debt, the increase in maintenance costs of which may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which is already taking place in Ukraine. Purpose. Determination of the features of the formation of public debt in Ukraine and research of its impact on economic growth in 2011-2019. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are envisaged: study of the main stages of the formation of public debt in Ukraine; analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt 2011-2019 years; research of the relationship between domestic and foreign debt and GDP with the help of a two-factor model; interpretation of the results and recommendations for optimizing the structure of public debt. Results. The article examines the formation of Ukraine's public debt since the country's independence (1991). Based on statistics and the work of domestic scientists, a brief description of the nine main stages of formation and accumulation of public debt was identified and provided; the structure of public debt (by sources, maturities and types of creditors) for 2011-2019 is analyzed; the dynamics of internal and external debts during the specified period is represented; an empirical analysis of the relationship between domestic and external debt and GDP is done; The Medium-Term Public Debt Management Strategy for 2019 – 2022 of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on Public Debt Management was considered. Based on empirical research, it was found that domestic debt has more positive impact on economic growth than external borrowing. The public debt management strategy for 2019-2022 developed in the context of macroeconomic stabilization contains four main objectives of public debt management and the first one is to increase the share of public debt in the national currency. Therefore, we can conclude that the results obtained in the study coincide with the strategic directions of the country's debt policy in the medium term.
- Research Article
7
- 10.31767/su.1(80).2018.01.04
- Jul 25, 2018
- Statistics of Ukraine
the public debt is deepened, the visions of the public debt as a phenomenon burdening the national economy, found in various schools of economics, are reviewed. It is demonstrated that the high internal and external dept in parallel with the respectively growing expenditure for its service is a pressing problem for Ukraine, calling for an urgent solution. This raises the need for seeking ways to improve the public debt management mechanisms.
 The article’s objective is to deepen the theoretical and methodological framework for assessment of the public debt in Ukraine and the budget expenditures for its service. It is demonstrated that the public debt in Ukraine results from the public budget deficit, high sovereign borrowing from internal and external sources. The econometric assessment of the time series on budget expenditures for debt service and repayment in Ukraine is given. The analysis of the public debt dynamics in Ukraine shows that not only the increasing volume of public debt and State-guarantee debt, but also the increasing budget expenditures on its service and repayment are dangerous. The high deficit of public budget is persisting, which growth is caused, inter alia, by the payment commitments. The expenditures on service and repayment of public debt constitute a large share in the public budget expenditures. Forecasting calculations made in the article demonstrate the upward tendency in the public budget expenditures on repayment and service of the public debt of Ukraine, thus signaling the growing threats to the budget security of Ukraine. The main factors for the rapidly increased debt burden in Ukraine over the latest years are identified: the considerable devaluation of domestic currency (Hryvnya), sharp drop in GDP, the shrinking internal consumer demand, etc. 
 It is demonstrated that the risk of the increasing payments for service of public debt is an essential and chronic factor generating problems in public finances and affecting the budget security of Ukraine.
- Research Article
12
- 10.21511/imfi.19(1).2022.28
- Apr 4, 2022
- Investment Management and Financial Innovations
External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development. AcknowledgmentThe article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001).
- Research Article
10
- 10.33763/finukr2023.01.026
- May 8, 2023
- Fìnansi Ukraïni
Introduction. Theoretical-methodological and methodical substantiation of approaches to the formation, structuring and systematization of statistical information on the public debt of Ukraine in accordance with international standards is of fundamental importance for improving the quality of strategic management of public finances. The implementation of international standards for statistical measurement and diagnostics of public debt makes it possible to objectively monitor the parameters of debt sustainability and bring public financial management tools closer to the best examples of world practice. The implementation of international standards for public debt statistics is an important element in ensuring the transparency of public finances, allowing to optimize cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial organizations. Institutional and regulatory implementation of international standards of public debt statistics will allow to increase the level of reasonableness of fiscal risk assessments and the predictability of debt policy in the medium term, to reduce the negative impact of political cycles and economic fluctuations on the state of public finances. In accordance with the Association Agreement of Ukraine with the EU and with Ukraine acquiring the status of a candidate country for joining the EU, the issue of approximation of national legislation to EU legislation, including regarding the national debt, has acquired extraordinary political, economic and social importance, especially in the conditions of external aggression of the Russian Federation and the tasks of the post-war reconstruction of the country’s economy. According to the Strategy of Economic Security of Ukraine for the period until 2025, the question of the acceptability of the level and sources of financing the public debt is one of the key factors for ensuring the financial security of the country. Problem Statement. Interrelated components of the issues of this article are highlighted: 1) institutional coverage of public finances and public debt; 2) the system of public finance management in the context of mutual compliance of objects, subjects and methods of such management; 3) standardized methodology for quantitative statistical measurement of public debt as part of public finances; 4) implementation of international standards of public debt statistics into the national system of public finance management. The purpose is to substantiate conceptual and methodological approaches and recommendations regarding the improvement of statistical measurement and systematization of information on the public debt of Ukraine in accordance with international standards; making changes and additions to the first part of Article 2 of the Budget Code of Ukraine regarding the public debt. Methodology and methods.. The general environment of analysis is public finances; the unifying shell is the public finance management system; the object is public debt; the subject is international standards of public debt statistics; the expected result is proposals and recommendations regarding the implementation of the specified standards with the aim of eliminating the legal uncertainty of the meaning of the term “public debt” in the first part of Article 2 of the Budget Code of Ukraine, bringing it into line with the norms of EU legislation, which will allow for reasonable quantitative measurements and international comparisons of public debt in Ukraine and EC countries. Methods of comparative qualitative and quantitative analysis, structural-institutional and structural-functional analysis, theoretical generalizations are applied; basic methodological principles and methodological approaches contained in the international System of National Accounts 2008, the European System of National and Regional Accounts 2010, other international standards related to public finance and public debt statistics. Results. In Ukrainian legislation (budgetary, tax, financial) there is no concept of “Public Finance”. The phenomenon of “fundamental uncertainty” has in many respects an ancient and systemic nature. This also applies to the term “public debt” in the first part of Article 2 of the Budget Code of Ukraine. The most complete understanding of public finances in a broad sense, which the author adheres to: “Public finance are the finance of the public sector of the economy”. Classification of international standards of public debt into five groups is proposed. The first is the so-called basic functional and organizational principles. The second is “universal” standards, which are the general conceptual and methodological basis for public debt statistics. The third is the standards of public finance statistics. The fourth is the standards related to the assessment of external debt. The fifth is special data dissemination standards. The implementation of international standards of public debt into the system of public finance management of Ukraine requires amendments to the national legislation. For this purpose, a project of the Law of Ukraine “On Amendments and Additions to Part One of Article 2 of the Budget Code of Ukraine (Regarding State Debt)” was developed. Conclusions. Public finances, including public debt, as an object/objects of management are subject to a clear classification based on the concepts of institutional units and institutional sectors (subsectors) of the national economy used in SNA 2008, ESA 2010, and other international standards. The starting point is the concept of the public sector of the economy, which combines two components - the sector of general government and the sector of public corporations. It is proposed to legislate the definitions of the public sector of the economy and public finance in the Economic Code of Ukraine. The new definition of public debt, which is proposed to be implemented together with related categories under the first part of Article 2 of the Budget Code of Ukraine, is justified.
- Research Article
1
- 10.32782/2224-6282/185-6
- Jan 1, 2023
- Economic scope
The article is aimed at studying the essence of the concept of "States debt sustainability" and formulating recommendations for managing debt sustainability. To do this, it is necessary to consider the relationship between the debt sustainability of the state and debt security, to systematize the factors influencing the debt sustainability of the state, and to analyze the assessment of Ukraine's debt sustainability. It is proposed that the "States debt sustainability" should be understood as a balance between the volume of public debt and the rate of economic growth, which is the result of the process of developing timely operational and tactical decisions of the Government and the National Bank. A statistical analysis of the dynamics and structure of the public debt of Ukraine is carried out. It is determined that in the period from 2014 to 2022, Ukraine experienced an increase in public debt, which led to an increase in debt pressure on the budget. It is analyzed that the amount of budget expenditures aimed at servicing debt obligations significantly reduces our ability to finance various economic and social programs. The main steps for effective public debt management in the context of military operations on the territory of Ukraine are proposed: – applying measures that will allow maintaining the optimal ratio between public debt and GDP for the economy. This means, first, the use of means to ensure positive rates of stable long-term economic growth in the country under the conditions of a competitive national economy with a highly efficient public administration system; – changing the structure of external debt by currency in the direction of increasing debt in the national currency. Given the depreciation of the national currency, in the short term, Ukraine should not abandon domestic borrowing in favor of foreign markets of capital; – allocate credit resources to refinance existing debts in order to improve the debt structure. Thus, the main challenge of today in ensuring Ukraine's debt sustainability is the need to comprehensively improve the state debt policy and develop a new debt strategy that will include the above recommendations under martial law.
- Research Article
1
- 10.35774/sf2021.04.020
- Jan 1, 2022
- WORLD OF FINANCE
Introduction. The frequent crises are a vital impediment to growth in Ukraine. One of the reasons is the accumulated imbalances, which objectively arise if ignoring the economic fundamentals in economic policy implementation. The purpose of the article is to study internal imbalances in Ukraine to determine the causes and consequences of economic slack given fiscal and monetary issues. Results. A critical observation of the Quantity Theory of Money approach in the balance between aggregate demand and supply made it possible to reconstruct the Ukrainian economy’s circular motion for the last ten years. The generation of the coincident and leading composite indices confirmed a difference to be at play between aggregate supply and demand. The parametric Early Warning System modeling results showed that an additional percentage of imbalances between aggregate demand and supply increased the likelihood of crises in Ukraine by 4%. The severe influence of the debt factor on macroeconomic dynamics made it possible to build up a quarterly econometric model by retranslating the exponential trend of the domestic public debt accumulation on GDP motion. The developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model made it possible to reconstruct the economy’s prospect to move sustainable growth path, subject to implementing the golden rule of public finance. The fiscal multiplier effect offset the short-run crowding-out effect resulting from debt accumulation for financing public investment in favor of increased production in the long term. The significant parameter in this scenario is public investments efficiency, the increased level of which has to be one of the goals of the economic policy implementation. Conclusions. Fiscal-monetary interaction is crucial for counteracting macroeconomic imbalances and activating economic dynamics. Given the rise in public debt in Ukraine due to the Covid-19 pandemic, borrowing should be cautious while performing the fiscal investment expansion to stimulate growth.
- Research Article
- 10.15407/econforecast2022.01.084
- Aug 3, 2022
- Economy and forecasting
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period. It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment. A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses. Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine.
- Research Article
4
- 10.15407/eip2022.01.107
- Apr 10, 2022
- Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period. It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment. A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses. Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine.
- Research Article
36
- 10.1086/658302
- Mar 1, 2011
- NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics
Recent events have highlighted the potential importance of nonlinear efiects of flscal variables (notably debt and deflcits) on interest rates: While in times when government solvency is not a concern the standard crowding-out efiects are of moderate magnitude, in times when default risk becomes an issue the interest rate efiects can become very large. This paper provides new evidence on the magnitude of these efiects. For the case when default risk is not a concern, it uses an arbitrage-free term structure model to estimate the dynamic efiects of flscal policy shocks on interest rates along the entire maturity spectrum. For the case when default risk becomes a concern (thereby violating a central assumption of the term structure model), I present evidence based on EMU government bond spread regressions on time-varying efiects of national flscal policies on spreads as well as the time-varying sensitivity of yield spreads to international risk aversion as a function of the state of flscal policy. JEL classiflcation: E6, H6.
- Book Chapter
2
- 10.30525/978-9934-26-437-5-5
- Jan 1, 2024
The study of Ukraine’s debt policy was carried out in the context of global challenges and the need for its purposeful adaptation to the conditions of the war economy and post-war recovery from the consequences of the war. Considerable attention is paid to the evaluation of various strategies of public debt management, as well as to the analysis of factors affecting its form, structure and sustainability. The main focus of the study is concentrated on the analysis of the state debt policy, the determination of its key characteristics and trends, the impact of internal and external shocks determined by global economic crises and political changes with a special emphasis on the period of martial law. The methodological approach is based on a complex analysis combining statistical and econometric methods, comparative analysis of international experience and the use of scientific literature and official reports. An important part of the methodology is the modeling of various scenarios of the development of the situation with the public debt in Ukraine, which makes it possible to assess potential risks and options for future political decisions. The main goal of the study is to determine effective strategies for managing the public debt of Ukraine, which would contribute to the stability of public finances and ensure the economic growth of the country. It was revealed that the key aspects of an effective debt policy are the diversification of funding sources, reducing dependence on external loans and increasing the share of domestic debt. It is also important to develop debt management tools that make it possible to reduce the cost of servicing debt and increase its sustainability. Prospects for further studies in this direction are related to the analysis of international practices and their adaptation to the conditions of Ukraine, particularly in the context of European integration processes and the search for a balance between economic growth and fiscal risks.
- Research Article
5
- 10.31767/su.2-3(89-90)2020.02-03.05
- Nov 24, 2020
- Statistics of Ukraine
A system analysis of the core threats to the budgetary security of the state shows that the current performance of the budgetary system in Ukraine was formed under the pressure of destructive external and internal risks aggravating the budgetary security problem. The article’s objective is to deepen theoretical and methodological foundations for the assessment of core threats to the budgetary security of the state. 
 It is demonstrated that the occurrence of external and internal threats to the budgetary security is characterized by the following tendencies: high level of GDP redistribution through the budgetary system; the growing figures of the total public debt, the government guaranteed debt and the payments to service and repayment of the public debt in Ukraine; the persisting high deficit of the public budget; high level of centralization of the budgetary funds. 
 It is substantiated that the execution of budget revenues involves two main dimensions of risk activities, which are the threats related with the proceeding of taxes and other categories of obligatory payments to the budget, and the administrative threats stemming from the existing system of tax administering. The impact of the first group of threats can be minimized by building up a rational budgetary system with the optimal level of fiscal burden. Minimization of the impact from the second group of threats will enable for the effective work of government bodies charged with administering and control. 
 The factors that cause risks and threats of budget losses resulting from failures in the budget revenues administration system are determined: risks which occurrence will result in the budget revenues never reaching the expected levels due to the inefficiency of forecasting and planning of budget revenues and failures in the routine operation process, first and foremost when mobilizing payments to the budget; risks of the excessive costs with the occurrence of which the costs for guaranteeing the projected figures of budget revenues by revenue category will exceed the economically viable ones; risks of the violation of the law, and risks of budget revenues administering per se.