Вероятностная оценка эффективности функционирования социальных систем в условиях негативных факторов

Abstract

An approach to the quantitative assessment of the open social system efficiency of a non-technical nature is con-sidered. The task is formulated from the standpoint of assessing complex indicators that take into consideration the conditions of external influences on an open non-technical system. Formalizing the formulated problem is carried out within the framework of the reliability theory methods. A two-parameter generalized analytical expression is obtained for calculating a probabilistic assessment of the open system efficiency, taking into consideration the nature of destructive impacts. An approach to calculating the probability of failure-free operation of such systems is substantiated, considering the frequency of failures caused by negative consequences from destructive impacts. The results of analytical modelling are presented in assessing the probabilistic indicators of open non-technical systems, in which the degradation of ongoing processes can be described on the basis of an exponential law. The processes of a non-technical nature corresponding to the specified distribution are given, which include the aging of information, the level of residual knowledge, the number of divorces by the number of years lived, motivational stability, etc., characteristic of such areas as pedagogy and psychology. The author considers an example of applying a reasonable approach in relation to the “burnout syndrome” based on analysing control points and time intervals, which allows predicting the future state of the diagnosed person according to the current assessments. Conclusions are made and directions for further research are determined.