ПОПЕРЕДНЯ ОЦІНКА СПРОМОЖНОСТІ ГРОМАД ТА РАЙОНІВ ЛУГАНСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ ПІСЛЯ ДЕОКУПАЦІЇ

Abstract

The large-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 led to the fact that the entire Luhansk region is occupied, and the Donetsk region is occupied by half. However, the issue of assessing the capacity of communities and districts after de-occupation became relevant. This is due to the fact that the assessment is influenced by many factors, the main one of which is the population that will return to those territories after de-occupation. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the calculations of the preliminary assessment of the capacity of territorial communities and districts of the Luhansk region after deoccupation. Methods used in the research: comparative analysis, detailing and generalization, grouping. The hypothesis of the study was the assumption that after the deoccupation of Luhansk region, there will be no viable territorial communities due to the depopulation of these territories. Summary of the main material: Three criteria (indicators) were used for the preliminary assessment of the capacity of territorial communities and districts of Luhansk region after de-occupation: the number of people permanently living in the territory of a capable territorial community; the number of students; share of the working population. The scenarios of the decrease in the number of the population and, accordingly, the share of the population of working age after deoccupation have been calculated. The optimistic scenario is the option when more than 70% of the population will return, most of which are of working age (more than 70%), the most realistic scenario is the return of approximately 50% of the population (the share of the population of working age from 70% to 30%), and the pessimistic scenario , this is when less than 30% of the population will return, among which less than 30% are of working age. Based on the results of the calculations, the number of capable communities and districts after de-occupation was determined. The originality and practical significance of the research consists in determining the number of capable communities and districts under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Conclusions and prospects for further research. Based on the results of the evaluation, it was determined that under the optimistic scenario, 26 capable communities and 7 districts will remain in Luhansk region after de-occupation, and under the pessimistic scenario, 18 communities and 4 districts will remain. However, the real scenario is more likely, i.e. it is between optimistic and pessimistic. Further research lies in the plane of detailed analysis of the real scenario of the formation of capable communities and districts in the territory of Luhansk region after the de-occupation up to the borders in 1991