ОЦЕНКА АГРОКЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ РЕСУРСОВ И УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ЯРОВОЙ ПШЕНИЦЫ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ ТАТАРСТАН

Abstract

Climate trends for the recent decades and a potential influence of agricultural technologies on spring wheat yields in the Republic of Tatarstan are analyzed. The authors used data on spring wheat yields (Federal State Statistics Service) and observations from 18 meteorological stations during 1961-2020. Climate-driven yields were calculated using the Climate-Soil-Yield simulation system. Yields at a fixed agronomic level were calculated for the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. It was established that there are differences in the trends in actual and climate-driven yields for these periods. Average actual yields for the second period are almost twice as high as those for the first period, but the rate of their increase does not grow. Average climate-driven yields in 1991-2020 were lower than in 1961-1990 (Mann-Whitney test, p = 0.05). An analysis of agroclimatic resources for individual decades shows that the downward trend in climate-driven yields is linked to a substantial temperature rise during the growing season and a harsher precipitation regime. The rate of a possible decrease in climate-driven yields of spring wheat in Tatarstan makes up ~2% per decade during 1991-2020.