Критерии эффективности инвестиционных проектов с дискретными и непрерывными денежными потоками

Abstract

For an assessment of efficiency of investment projects use various criteria which decide on use of discounting of discrete cash flows. For an assessment of investments in the form of a portfolio of market financial instruments taking into account features of behavior of investors and risks the criterion of admissible losses is used. Criterion acceptable losses while limited in its application, despite the development of research in this area. It is used only at an assessment of investments in the form of a portfolio of market financial instruments. When evaluating the efficiency of investment projects using a model of the discounted discrete cash flow. It is offered to use criterion of admissible losses for an assessment of separate projects. It is offered to define it as the lower bound of a confidential interval of the net specified value: N = NPV – t(P) · s NPV, where NPV – a population mean of the net specified value; s – mean square deviation of the net specified value of the project; t(P) – coefficient of a confidential interval; P – confidential probability which is chosen by the investor – the person, making the decision. It is offered to select projects, the lower bound of the net which specified value is represented investors preferable. For the investment projects, generating continuous cash flows, it is offered to use integrated model of discounting of continuous streams. For determination of sizes of criterion of admissible losses of the projects generating discrete also cash flows are continuous, necessary settlement formulas are given. Application of the offered criterion of admissible losses of investment projects and programs will allow to consider reasonably preferences of the investor and to increase the accuracy of estimates of efficiency taking into account risk.