ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯ СБОРА И ИНТЕРПРЕТАЦИЯ ВЕРОЯТНОСТНЫХ ЭКСПЕРТНЫХ ОЦЕНОК В ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОМ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the probabilistic approach to the political forecasts obtained by interviewing experts. The characteristic features of the collection of expert information are described, in particular, the use of network methods for obtaining probabilistic estimates from specialists. Particular attention is paid to various options for interpreting the estimates that are probabilistic. The authors come to the conclusion that an important role in scientific prediction is played not only by prediction methods, although the value of obtained estimates depends on the correctly chosen and professionally conducted method of information gathering, but also by the interpretation of obtained predictive probabilities.