Abstract
The use of numerical models to assess the resistance (load bearing capacity) and serviceability of new and existing structures is one of the most important achievements of recent decades for civil engineers. The numerical model, like any other model, has uncertainties that need to be established and taken into account when ensuring the structural reliability. At the same time, the statistical characteristics of the uncertainty of numerical models remain the least studied. The purpose of the study is to develop and scientifically substantiate the design based on numerical models of load-bearing capacity. The object of the study is the parameters of numerical models and statistical characteristics of the uncertainty of the numerical result. The main objectives of the case study include: (i) analysis of the sensitivity of the results from variations in the parameters of numerical models; (ii) verification of the parameters of numerical models based on experimental data; (iii) calculation of statistical characteristics of the uncertainty of the numerical model, which are expected to be used in the future in the development of the safety format and the normalization of the values of partial reliability factors.
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