러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 러시아 천연가스 수출 방향의 변화와 전망

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes in Russia-Europe natural gas relations after Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The following changes are observed after the invasion in 2022.BR Russia’s effort to use its natural gas as a political weapon could not effectively disrupt EU’s untied energy policy. By adopting REPowerEU plan, EU cleary shows its united effort to reduce energy dependence on Russian fossil fuel. Although export volume of Russian LNG to Europe increased in 2022, total export volume of natural gas decreased.BR Asia, especially North East Asia, is the most promising or olny remained alternative natural gas market for Russia considering factor that geographical proximity and its demands. However, China is already importing substantial amount of russian natural gas and it is unclear that China has extra demand for importing additional Russian natural gas. Also, China has shown support for Russia whenever Russia faces difficulties due to conflict with the West, Russia may become dependent to China.BR As for Russia energy policy in Northeast Asian natural gas market, it is desirable for Russia to reduce its dependence on China and increase cooperation with South Korea and Japan which has huge LNG demands. However, considering the fact that South Korea and Japan are also importing natural gas under long-term contracts, that they are under pressure to participate in Western sanctions against Russia, and that the US and Australia are accelerating their entry into the LNG market, Russia’s sales volume in Northeast Asia cannot be increased dramatically. Thus, it is possible to increase its supply, but it seems difficult to enjoy the position as the leading supplier.