Удосконалення методики оцінки інвестиційної безпеки держави з урахуванням «кругових» інвестицій

Abstract

The article discusses the features of «round tripping» investments that come to the country in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), but in its essence is the return of previously withdrawn domestic capital abroad, mainly to offshore jurisdictions. The author suggests that there is a significant impact of «round tripping» investments on the investment security of the State, taking into account the motives of their formation and a significant illegal component, the absence of additional effects from attracting these investments into the economy. It is proposed to supplement the system of indicators of investment security of the State with the indicator «share of «round tripping» investments in the total volume of FDI (excluding reinvested capital)». To find out the directedness of the relationship between this indicator and the country’s economy, a regression analysis based on the data of 2010–2022 was applied. As a result of the analysis, a direct relationship between GDP in actual prices and GDP per capita, as dependent variables, and the share of «round tripping» investments in total FDI as an independent variable, has been identified. The article assesses the level of investment security of Ukraine in 2015–2021 taking into account the share of «round tripping» investments in the total volume of FDI (excluding reinvested income) based on the calculation of the integral indicator. The results of the calculation of the sensitivity coefficients of the integral indicator to changes in indicators testified to the largest impact of «round tripping» investments on the state of investment security of Ukraine in 2021. The carried out study confirmed the expediency of improving the methodology for assessing the investment security of the State by supplementing the system of indicators with the indicator of the share of «round tripping» investments in the total volume of FDI (excluding reinvested income).