ՌԴ փոխարժեքի անկայունության և տնտեսական ճգնաժամի ազդեցությունները ՀՀ տնտեսության վրա/Effects of Exchange Rate Instability and Economic Crisis in Russia on the Armenian Economy

Abstract

The military conflict over Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia are pushing the Russian economy into a crisis. Its transmission to Armenia can already be witnessed with exchange rate instability and can be materialized fully during the year. In this paper, the authors are applying econometric methods and are modeling the possible developments of more sensitive indicators and exchange rate of Armenia given different scenarios for the Russian economy. As the possible positive effects (like inflow of people and additional export opportunities) are hard to measure yet, the authors quantify negative effects, which point to the risks for economic downturn during this year.