МОДЕЛЬНО-АЛГОРИТМИЧЕСКОЕ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ЭКСПЕРТНОЙ СИСТЕМЫ «СТАБИЛЬНОЕ ОЛЕНЕВОДСТВО В УСЛОВИЯХ КРАЙНЕГО СЕВЕРА»

Abstract

Reindeer is part of the humandeerpasture sociobiological system, where all the constituent parts form emergence. The differences between the reindeer husbandry of foreign countries and Russia are shown. Reindeer in various countries are considered mainly as wild, few herds, and in Russia, at present, 75% of the reindeer population in the Arctic zone belongs to the domestic form. Therefore, the approaches to the study of the problems of reindeer husbandry also differ: the studies of foreign scientists are focused on the study and construction of models of local problems, while Russian studies, in addition to important local problems, are aimed at solving the problems of analyzing the features of the entry of traditional fishing farms into the system of market relations and forms adaptation of traditions to the modern image of economic reality. However, the description of sociobiosystems refers to poorly formalized problems that do not lend themselves to modeling by deterministic mathematical methods, and even more so by statistical ones. Therefore, a new fuzzypossibility approach for constructing multifactor models is proposed, based on the use of explicit and implicit knowledge and experience of experts. An example of constructing an adequate fuzzypossibility model of the stability of a reindeer husbandry in a sevenfactor space of both quantitative and nonquantitative (qualitative) variables is given. The adequacy of the model was confirmed situationally for the state of three reindeerbreeding commercial farms in the YamalNenets Autonomous Okrug for 2019 and 2020.