한국 고교 야구선수의 프로야구 신인 지명 영향 요인 분석 : 의사결정나무분석을 이용하여

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the variables that affect being picked for Korean professional baseball in high school baseball players. For this, as analysis variables, team’s (long term and short term) awards, individual’s awards, height, weight, metropolitan area, and metropolitan cities were used.<BR> Method: The subjects of the study were 3rd-grade high school baseball players registered with the Korea Baseball Association from 2014 to 2019 (N=4220). The subjects were divided into three groups: Retirement after high school（n=1597, 38%), university entrance (n=2147, 51%) and picked in professional baseball draft (n=476, 11%). To analyze the differences among groups, Kruskal-Wallis H, Tukey’s post-test, and chi-square test were performed. A decision tree analysis was conducted to analyze being picked prediction models in professional baseball draft and for intuitive understanding.<BR> Results: The results of this study are as follows. 1) The team’s long-term award, short-term (2 years) award, and individual award influenced the high school baseball player’s being picked in the professional baseball draft. Among these, the individual’s awards were identified as the most decisive variable. 2) Height and weight were found to have an effect on the being picked, and height was found to be a more decisive variable. 3) The metropolitan area did not affect the being picked, and the metropolitan cities influenced being picked in the professional baseball draft. 4) There was no relative age effect on the being picked in professional baseball draft of high school baseball players.<BR> Conclusion: In summary, this study emphasizes that physical conditions and regional characteristics can influence the being picked in professional baseball draft, in addition to direct performance indexes such as team awards and individual awards.