Підвищення якості автотехнічної експертизи дорожньо-транспортних пригод в умовах композиційної невизначеності

Abstract

Decision-making in solving the problems of auto technical examination of road accidents (road accidents) is carried out in conditions of incomplete information, ie in conditions of uncertainty, which may be stochastic or fuzzy in nature, and therefore is compositional. When forming expert opinions of auto technical examination of road accident the general uncertainty is formed due to uncertainty of the chosen structure of model of road accident, experimental data, error of measuring devices, adequacy of model of road accident, uncertainty of indications of witnesses and other proofs, competence and honesty of the expert. The calculation of vehicle parameters in motor vehicle expertise in the vast majority of cases is performed without estimating the error of the results, which does not meet the requirements of the Law of Ukraine "On Metrology and Metrological Activity" and determines the relevance of improving methods of solving road accident technical examination. The paper reveals the prospects of improving the existing methods of assessing the effectiveness of braking of wheeled vehicles, as the main way to prevent accidents in road transport, which is regulated by the current Traffic Rules. The basic theoretical dependences which form a basis of the improved technique of estimation of parameters of movement of cars at braking are presented. Analysis of the results of the calculations shows that by taking into account the design of the braking system, type and condition of tires used in assessing braking efficiency, the improved technique avoids the same solutions within one category of vehicles, and taking into account stochastic and fuzzy uncertainty narrows the range of possible solutions by 49.4 %. The probability of occurrence of type I errors is reduced by 1.75-18.5%, and type II errors - by 43.1-67.8%.