МОДЕЛЬ ОЦЕНКИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ, ПОЛУЧЕННАЯ С ПОМОЩЬЮ МЕТОДОВ КОРРЕЛЯЦИОННО-РЕГРЕССИОННОГО АНАЛИЗА

Abstract

In the context of a slowdown in the growth of the world economy, and the national economies reformatting as a result of sanitary and epidemiological restrictions, the issue of establishing economic security criteria and indicators at various levels of the economy becomes urgent. The primary element of the Russian economy creating goods, performing work, and providing services is an enterprise. Since currently, there are different scientific points of view, and there is no unified approach to this issue, there is a need to create a scientifically based model, including using mathematical methods, for assessing the viability of an enterprise regarding the safety of its vital interests. Using the correlation and regression analysis, the author studies the linear dependence of economic security general level on the corresponding financial indicators, which are formed based on fifty simulated financial and economic situations in the company’s activities. To analyze, the author uses the coefficients of fixed assets depreciation, absolute liquidity, term liquidity, capitalization, financial independence, asset turnover autonomy, capital return, equity turnover, and economic, financial, and commercial profitability. As a result, the paper presents a model for assessing the general level of the company’s economic security. The resulting equation is significant, but only five of thirteen coefficients are valid at a given level of error and probability: the fixed assets depreciation coefficient, absolute liquidity coefficient, current liquidity coefficient, financial independence coefficient, and financial profitability coefficient. At the same time, the formulated system of indicators of exclusively financial security is not complete when studying the level of economic security of an enterprise, forming only the central part of the general (expanded) model of economic security of an enterprise.