Оценка различных сценариев освоения месторождений полезных ископаемых региона (на примере Тувы)

Abstract

It is shown that Tuva has a sufficiently rich mineral and raw material diversity and the potential for their development. Nevertheless, the development of the republic is hindered by the existence of transport and infrastructure restrictions, to eliminate which, first of all, it is necessary to build a railway along the Kyzyl-Kuragino highway. On the other hand, given the border area of the territory that adjoins western Mongolia, there is a possibility of implementing various scenarios for the construction of railway tracks. The calculations performed to evaluate scenarios for the development of mineral resources of the republic using methods of intersectoral assessment shows that when implementing a pessimistic option for the development of the potential of mineral resources of Tuva (in which the construction of the railway to Tuva is frozen and only deposits of non-ferrous metals and gold are developed), the gross regional product of the republic will grow to 164 billion rubles, which will be 45% of the growth of this indicator in relation to the GRP of 2018. With the implementation of the optimistic option I, (in which it is planned to build a railway along the Kuragino-Kyzyl highway, coal deposits, non-ferrous metals, gold are being developed), the GRP of the republic will grow up to 351 billion rubles. In addition, calculations have been made for the construction of railways that would connect Tuva with Mongolia and China.