Реальні та гіпотетичні ризики майбутнього накопичувального рівня пенсійного страхування в Україні

Abstract

No decisive steps have been taken in Ukraine to introduce a cumulative level of pension provision. The significant number of risks is one of the reasons for this. The purpose of the article is to study the theoretical foundations of hypothetical and real risks of the cumulative level of the pension system in Ukraine, which is expected to be introduced. A number of methods were used in the study, including abstract-logical, methods of analysis and synthesis and comparative analysis. It is argued that the cumulative level of pension provision will be characterized by a number of real risks: organizational and managerial risk, risk of high administrative costs, risk of depreciation of pension savings, selective risk, and risk of insufficient contributions. Hypothetical risks include market volatility risk and criminal risk. The cumulative level of pension provision is significantly affected by the risk of depreciation of pension savings, because given the high inflation rate and devaluation of the national currency, one should not expect a decent level of pensions in the long term, even taking into account the investment component of the cumulative level. It has been established that the domestic legal framework does not specify a mechanism for protection against such a risk, which undermines credibility to the functioning of the entire cumulative component of the pension system. Selective risk and the risk of financial market volatility are closely related to financial market trends and, under adverse conditions, may manifest themselves in the investment component of pension savings. It has been determined that the mechanism for overcoming such risks has not been defined in regulatory legal acts yet. Jointly, these risks determine the lack of principal steps in the process of reforming the modern pension system. In the case of the introduction of the cumulative level of pension provision, a system should be provided to prevent the risks of depreciation of pension savings and selective risks. Further studies will address the mechanisms that can prevent or reduce selective risks and risks of depreciation of pension savings.