Количественная оценка влияния смертности населения на экономику дальневосточных субъектов Российской Федерации

Abstract

The article is devoted to a quantitative assessment of the impact of mortality of the working-age population on the economy of the Far-Eastern regions of the Russian Federation. The results of analysis of the demographic situation in the Far East in the pre-pandemic and pandemic period are presented. It is shown that the negative demographic trend in the macro-region persists. Moreover, the rate of population decline in the Far East is increasing every year. At the end of 2022nd, demographic losses exceeded indicators of the pandemic period of 2020–2021 several times. Using the Cobb-Douglas production function, built on the basis of a panel data structure for 2017–2021, assessment of elasticity of the gross regional product of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of population was obtained the employed population aged 15 to 72. Decrease in the impact of employment on economic dynamics of the Far-Eastern federal district in comparison with the period of 2000–2007 was found. Using the appropriate estimates, quantitative analysis of the impact of mortality of the employed able-bodied population on the economic dynamics of the regions of the Far East was carried out. It is shown that in regions with a diversified structure of economy, the damage from mortality of the employed working-age population is higher compared to the resource-rich regions, where specialized types of economic activity are characterized by the relatively high capital intensity.