Анализ последствий изменения климата для управления климатическими рисками на железнодорожном транспорте

Abstract

Purpose: Meta-analysis of the consequences of climate change for climate risk management in railway transportation. Methods: Analysis the consequences of climate change, based on an array of statistical data for the period from 1990 to 2019, thermal risks for railway infrastructure facilities have been identified. Results: It has been shown that the degree of heating of railway infrastructure objects can vary significantly depending on the specific location and type of object. The causes of failures associated with thermal risks on the railway network have been identified: most of the incidents associated with the heat occur during the period from the beginning to the middle of summer. There is a significant vulnerability of equipment to heat. A wide range of equipment fails due to heating at ambient temperatures within the operating range, as well as within the climatic norms of the given region. Practical significance: Ways to increase the stability of transport infrastructure and adaptation to climate change have been formulated. It is shown that climate change increases the likelihood of natural disasters and dangerous natural processes that can initiate emergency situations in transportation. The growth of annual extremums of air temperature is predicted in most of Russia. In this case, an increase in the number of days with abnormally high values of air temperature and a decrease in the number of days with extremely low night air temperatures is expected. The assessment shows that in some cases, the factors of climatic risk may not be dangerous natural phenomena themselves, but the dangerous technogenic events created by them.