냉전 시기 중국 핵개발 사례를 통해 본 북핵 문제의 현재와 미래

Abstract

First ever US-North Korea summit in June 2018 and February 2019 has elevated hopes for peaceful settlement of the North’s denuclearization prospect. Against this background, the article attempts to analyze it through a comparative historical study of China’s nuclearization case. Whether such an approach is realistically valid or not is the question in challenge. There are many similarities between the North Korean case and the Chinese in that their nuclearization was motivated by the same adversary and its deterrence was aimed at one common enemy: all in the United States. Conversely, the United States also relied on the similar responsive procedures against the two, only allowing them to succeed with nuclear armament. Given the “success” of North Korea’s nuclear tests and test firings of various carriers, the prospect for soft-landing of the North’s denuclearization has risen, as evidenced in the resultant summit between the United States and North Korea. Although tt may be too early to be optimistic about the consequence, however, the conditions and conditionalities are ripe for such optimism.