머신러닝을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 천궁 생리 활성 성분 예측 모델 연구

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a global problem, with frequent temperature increases, droughts, and floods, and it is predicted that it will have a great impact on the characteristics and productivity of crops. Cnidium officinale is used not only as traditionally used herbal medicines, but also as various industrial raw materials such as health functional foods, natural medicines, and living materials, but productivity is decreasing due to threats such as continuous crop damage and climate change. Therefore, this paper proposes a model that can predict the physiologically active ingredient index according to the climate change scenario of Cnidium officinale, a representative medicinal crop vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, data was first augmented using the CTGAN algorithm to solve the problem of data imbalance in the collection of environment information, physiological reactions, and physiological active ingredient information. Column Shape and Column Pair Trends were used to measure augmented data quality, and overall quality of 88% was achieved on average. In addition, five models RF, SVR, XGBoost, AdaBoost, and LightBGM were used to predict phenol and flavonoid content by dividing them into ground and underground using augmented data. As a result of model evaluation, the XGBoost model showed the best performance in predicting the physiological active ingredients of the sacrum, and it was confirmed to be about twice as accurate as the SVR model.