Оценка мультипликативных эффектов в экономике Хабаровского края: влияние на доходы населения

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of multiplier effects in the economy of the Far-Eastern federal district, generated by exogenous changes, on the household income. The Khabarovsk territory was chosen as a model region, which has a set of geographical, economic, social, including demographic, characteristics typical for the entire line of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation. The main research method is a balance structural modeling based on the principles of national accounting methodology. Experimental assessment of the matrix of financial flows of the Khabarovsk territory is carried out, taking into account disaggregation of the household account, namely, distribution of the income by 20% (quintile) groups of population, ranked in ascending order of average per capita income. Using the matrix approach allows not only study systematically financial flows between the institutional units in the region, but also to conduct a quantitative analysis of the multipliers of exogenous aggregate demand, demand for the residents' products, demand for production factors (capital and labor). The time frame of the study covers the 2019-2020 biennium. The scientific interest in this period is explained by an attempt to assess changes in the influence of exogenous factors on the dynamics of incomes of the population, taking into account the effect of external shock in relation to the region - a pandemic caused by the spread of a new coronavirus infection. The obtained estimates identified in numerical terms the relationship between regional socio-economic dynamics and changes in the well-being of the population in the context of its individual income groups. An increase in 2020 relative to 2019 is shown in the sensitivity of household incomes in the region to exogenous changes in gross output and the production factor - labor; decrease - the output of the residents of the region and the factor of production - capital. Income groups that influence the change in the corresponding sensitivity are identified.