Влияние параметров транспортного потока и характеристик дорог на безопасность дорожного движения

Abstract

Despite the positive effect of the implementation of existing federal targeted programs and national projects in the field of road safety (RTS), the death rate on roads remains quite high. The article considers the current state of accidents, the dynamics of the development of the road network and the level of motorization over the past 10 years. The factors that determine the current state of accidents are identified. Based on the accident rate on the territory of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, it was revealed that the most serious road traffic accidents (RTA) occur on roads outside the city limits, a large percentage of accidents involving vehicles of categories M2, M3 and N. Based on the analysis of studies in the field of road safety assessment and statistical data, the purpose of the study is defined - to identify the impact of traffic flow parameters and road characteristics on road safety. The paper uses the methods of mathematical statistics, the content of which was determined in the course of a study of 20 sites on the FAD in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. For analysis, sections were selected that differ in the level of accidents, traffic flow characteristics and geometric parameters. As a result of a scientific study, it is mathematically confirmed that traffic safety is influenced by the composition of the traffic flow and the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles. The dependence of the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles on the composition of the traffic flow, the dependence of the partial accident rate coefficient K11 on the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles are determined. A regression model has been obtained for the dependence of the average annual number of accidents on the width of the shoulder, the radius of the curve in plan, visibility, the distance from the edge of the carriageway to a cliff with a depth of more than 5 m, the friction coefficient, the composition of the traffic flow, the variation range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles. The scientific novelty of the study is the dependence of the average annual number of accidents on the traffic flow parameters and road characteristics. The practical significance of the study lies in the increase in traffic safety due to the use of the final accident rate method in its assessment, which takes into account the composition of the traffic flow and the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaken vehicles. Further research is aimed at identifying yet unaccounted for factors influencing RTS.