Аналіз попиту на освітні послуги ЗВО України в умовах сучасних викликів

Abstract

The aim of the article is to study the demand for educational services in Ukraine under the influence of economic, political and social factors that are effective in the country. Among the main factors influencing the demand for educational services are the COVID-19 pandemic, the full-scale invasion of the russian federation on the territory of Ukraine and, as a result, migration processes, the destruction of educational infrastructure, changes in the structure of the labor market, budget constraints, reduction of funding at the expense of households, etc. The projected value of the reduction in demand for educational services (number of entrants) by 2025 based on the studied parameters is on average 10%. A correlation and regression analysis was carried out to study the demand for educational services of higher education institutions (HEIs) depending on the main demographic, economic, political and social indicators. According to the analysis of the correlation matrix, the factors that have a high level of closeness of interconnection and a direct impact on the number of entrants to HEIs are the number of school graduates, the number of population aged 16–59 years and the employment rate. Factors such as a decrease in education costs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the occupation have an inverse impact on the number of entrants. The paper considers the study of the effectiveness of the State regulation of admission to the budget form of education in individual specialties. For this purpose, data on the results of the 2023 admission campaign from the Unified State Electronic Database on Education were used. It is found that in 2023, the highest demand is for specialties related to the social and philological direction (Psychology, Journalism), as well as those that have a well-established importance in terms of prestige and employment (Dentistry, International Relations, specialties in the IT profile, etc.). On the other hand, the lowest demand is for engineering specialties, where the competition is two applications for three budget-funded places. The article uses econometric methods of analysis of digital information, analyzes the influence model between the indicators of the passing score and the general competition. Recommendations are provided on the revision of the policy of admission and competitive selection of students in certain specialties, taking into account the existing established trends in the demand for engineering specialties and taking into account the factor of occupation of the country’s territory and, as a result, changes in the structure of production and needs in the labor market.