МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ РЕГИОНА НА ОСНОВЕ КРИТЕРИАЛЬНОЙ ГРАДАЦИИ

Abstract

The nature of demographic processes: reproductive behavior, migration behavior, health status and life expectancy in modern Russia determined the relevance of the study. A large number of scientists have been studying the relationship between social, economic and demographic criteria, in particular, hypothetical modeling of factors of socio-demographic development, which were considered in the article, can be traced in the works of neoclassical economic theories of migration. The article has developed and empirically confirmed a hypothetical model of socio-demographic development of rural territories, based on the assumption that the dynamics of migration (D-indicators) of the rural population of the regions graded, according to the selected criterion for the n-number of groups, on their real incomes (S-indicators), proving the statements of neoclassical theories of migration that the incentive to move is an increase in income. The presented model consists of six stages. At the first stage, the hypothesis was put forward that the heterogeneity of the income of the population, depending on the region of residence, inversely affects the migration processes in them; on the basis of this, inequalities were constructed. Further, the graduation criterion was determined – the districts of the region are divided into six groups depending on the wages of employees of agricultural organizations. At the third stage, the model indicators (S and D) were determined, then during the study the hypothesis was empirically confirmed. At the last stage, the possibility of reducing socio-demographic tension in rural areas of the region is justified and the potential for intensification and expansion of economic activity of socio-demographic development of rural areas of the Saratov region with salary gradation is calculated.