ЗАВИСИМОСТЬ ПИКА ВЕСЕННЕГО ПОЛОВОДЬЯ В ВЕРХОВЬЯХ РЕКИ ЦНЫ ОТ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ФАКТОРОВ

Abstract

The rise of water in rivers when it reaches high and abnormally high levels can lead to catastrophic consequences for the property complex and even pose threat to human life. Generally, in the European part of Russia, such levels are observed during high spring floods, which are characterized by a random frequency and depend on a combination of several factors. Climatic changes necessitate significant adjustments to the previously developed forecasting methods, whose accuracy and justification are reducing sharply. Therefore, the development of relevant forecasting methods for small and medium rivers is an important scientific objective. This paper considers 17 climatic factors potentially influencing the formation of the maximum levels of spring floods. The factors whose influence is most significant were determined by the correlation-regression analysis. The analysis was carried out according to the data of the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station, located at the upper reaches of the Tsna River (the Oka River basin), and the Tambov weather station for the period from 1970 to 2020. We have established that the probability of high floods increases to the greatest extent when the starting dates of snowmelt shift to later ones. The probability of high floods also increases with a rise in snow water reserves, autumn soil moisture, and a later transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС upwards. The results of this work are already being introduced into practice for verification and are used to make forecasts of the maximum flood level at the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station.