Abstract
In the period of globalization, the economic shocks that occurred in one country quickly spread to other countries. So the actions of the developed countries’ Central banks have a significant impact on other countries, in particular emerging markets countries. The paper considers an example of the impact of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policy on the Ukrainian economy. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policy on the financial indicators of Ukraine. The analysis is based on the event study methodology and constructing econometric models using the one least-squares method. The event study method allows to evaluate whether the time series of the studied indicators moves around a certain date. As a result, it was determined that the ECB's unconventional measures had the greatest impact on Ukrainian financial indicators, and the Bank of Japan had the least impact. Non-traditional measures of banks under study affected exchange rates and the yield of two-year government bonds. ECB and Fed’s Unconventional monetary policy had an impact on the MSCI stock index, and the ECB policy also affected the interbank three-month rate. On the whole, the first rounds of unconventional monetary policy of the central banks under study have the main influence on the financial indicators of Ukraine.
Highlights
In recent decades, the integration of countries into the global economy has accelerated
It is assumed that the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan have had a significant impact on emerging markets, including Ukraine
Tatjana Dahlhaus Garima Vasishtha examine the impact of US monetary policy news on portfolio flows to emerging markets The results show that the impact of unconventional shock on portfolio flows is generally economically small, but varies significantly across countries [Dahlhaus T., Vasishtha G.:2019]
Summary
The integration of countries into the global economy has accelerated. It is assumed that the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan have had a significant impact on emerging markets, including Ukraine. Ana Paula Serra and Eurico Ferreira study the impact of the unconventional monetary policy of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England on the financial markets of developing countries. In order to assess the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures by the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan on the Ukrainian economy was using press releases from these banks Based on these data and use event study methodology was created database of unconventional monetary policy announcements for selected central banks for the period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2019. Dependent variable USD/UAH MSCI INTERBANK 3M 2Y - ZERO YIELD CDS 3Y (USD) CDS 5Y (USD) CDS 10Y (USD)
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