Abstract

본 연구는 기후변화와 관련하여 미생물학적 식품안전상 쉽게 영향 받을 수 있는 식품과 관련 식중독세균을 결정하는데 이용할 수 있는 Risk Ranger를 활용한 Excel spreadsheet 상의 모델을 개발하였고, 모델 입력값은 자료의 부족으로 전문가 설문을 통해 결정하였으며, 확률분포모델과 @RISK를 이용한 시뮬레이션을 통해 실제 국내 식품중 기후변화에 대한 민감할 것으로 예상되는 상위 5개 식품군과 이들 식품과 관련된 주요 식중독 원인균을 결정하였다. 추정결과, 상위 5종 식품과 관련 식중독 세균으로는 즉석섭취식 품류(RTE) (황색포도상구균, 살모넬라, 병원성대장균 O157:H7)가 가장 큰 영향을 받을 것으로 나타났으며, 다음이 떡류 및 빵류 (황색포도상구균, 바실러스 세레우스), 식육 및 알가공품 (살모넬라, 병원성대장균 O157:H7, 황색포도상구균), 두부류 또는 묵류 (바실러스 세레우스, 병원성대장균 O157:H7, 황색포도상구균)였으며, 마지막으로 어육가공품(황색포도상구균, 비브리오, 병원성대장균 O157:H7)의 순으로 나타났다. This study was performed to determine the ranking foods and related foodborne pathogens for the impact of climate change, e.g., increasing temperature, on microbiological food safety. To do this, we developed an impact-ranking model comprising an Excel spreadsheet by using Risk Ranger. Because of a lack of data, input values in this model were determined on the basis of an expert's opinion. These values also were converted to normal distribution, and the developed model was simulated using @RISK. In conclusion, the 5 superior ranking foods and related foodborne pathogens for climate change impact were as follows: ready-to-eat foods (RTE) (Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella spp., and Escherichia coli O157:H7); bread and rice cakes (S. aureus and Bacillus cereus); meat and egg products (Salmonella spp., E. coli O157:H7, and S. aureus); tofu (bean curds) and jellies (B. cereus, E. coli O157:H7, and S. aureus); and fish products (S. aureus, Vibrio spp., and E. coli O157:H7).

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