АНАЛИЗ ВРЕМЕННОГО РАСПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ ПАССАЖИРОПОТОКА НА АВТОМОБИЛЬНОМ ТРАНСПОРТЕ НА ОСНОВЕ ДАННЫХ РАЙДШЕРИНГА

Abstract

The paper studies indicators of passenger movement volumes on road transport for regional transport network that are gained on the basis of ride-sharing on-line services. For the processing of data arrays of common rides’ services web-scraping is used. The paper also investigates time distribution of passenger traffic that shows the filling of cars by passengers on various sections of a route. Peculiarities and dependencies of day fluctuations of passenger traffic for the Sverdlovsk region transport network are analysed. The author has considered a task of modeling of seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of passenger traffic volumes. She has used all necessary statistical procedures required for identification and assessment of model parameters and verification of its adequacy and accuracy. The time series model with polynomial smoothing is used for short-term forecasting that allows analysing the dynamics of passenger traffic, decreasing costs on monitoring of information on passenger traffic and allows using results for solving tasks of technological organization of public transport.