고속철도 개통이 항공여객 수요변화에 미치는 영향 분석 - 서울-제주간 노선을 중심으로 -

Abstract

Competition between air transportation and railways has grown fiercer in major countries around the world with the rise of high-speed railways. In South Korea, air passenger travel has been rapidly decreasing since the initial launch of the Seoul-Pusan KTX line in 2004 and second opening that followed in 2010. Further expansion of the high-speed railway is expected. At present, research efforts to verify the validity of constructing an underwater express railway tunnel between Ho-nam and Jeju Island are taking place. Considering the possible high speed railway connection between Seoul and Jeju Island, this thesis has analyzed the choice behavior of existing passengers of the major and low-cost carriers. For this, Stated Preference (SP) research has been performed for three variables, including fare, travel time and the number of runs, to estimate the substitution rate of each of the three variables. Binomial Logit Model has been estimated with the obtained data. The estimation of the model has found that airline passengers of major and low-cost carriers are willing to pay approximately 7,200 KRW and 5,000 KRW, respectively, to reduce travel time by one hour. If the number of runs in one day increases, it has been estimated that the passengers are willing to pay additional fares of about 390 KRW and 30 KRW, respectively. On the other hand, the substitution rate between the number of runs and the travel time was found to be somewhat insignificant. If the construction of the Seoul-Jeju line progresses in the future, this study could be used as preliminary data for determining fares, travel time and the number of runs.