Построение модели предоставления экосистемной услуги «охлаждающий эффект» на примере г. Тюмень

Abstract

This article aims to identify the main factors influencing the supply of the “Cooling Effect” ecosystem service, which is important for creating a comfortable urban environment. The parameters of the ecosystem service “Cooling effect” (supply and demand) are expressed quantitatively as the difference between the surface temperatures and the maximum comfort temperature for the summer period (23°C) for the mathematical regression model of the process. The results of field observations and analysis of space images allowed us to verify the cartographic basis of the Open Street Map and organize thematic data for modeling: we sorted natural objects by area (selected with an area of at least 1 hectare), buildings by the criterion of multi-story, roads by the criterion of the number of lanes. To determine the dependence of temperatures on the selected indicators, the urban area was covered with a hexagonal grid with a hexagon radius of 500 m. The cells (bins) of the constructed hexagonal grid were selected as the operational research units. Areas are calculated as a percentage within the bin, distances—as the nearest in meters from the bin to the specified objects in a straight line. Calculations were performed in ArcGIS Pro software using tools from the Spatial Statistics—Spatial Relationship Modeling toolbox. The model building algorithm includes sequential launch of two analysis tools: Exploratory Regression and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Based on the results of the work of the tools, the following were performed: interpretation and analysis of reports, messages and maps. As a result of the study, the main factors influencing the temperature distribution have been identified. The strongest variables are the area of multi-storey buildings and the distance to major roads. The third most important factor is the forest area.