Контроль над обычными вооружениями в Европе: кризис и перспективы его преодоления

Abstract

The post-Cold War conventional arms control system (CACE), based on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty), has experienced a series of crises in 2000s early 2020s. The recent escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO merely finalized the process of disintegration of this system, resulting from a range of diverse factors. The CACE crisis was caused by long-term military-political, military-strategic, and military-technical shifts. Despite the complexity of the current military-political relations between Russia and NATO, the authors believe that it is already appropriate to begin searching for ways to restore the CACE regime, which would be optimal in terms of the evolving strategic landscape in the Euro-Atlantic region and would meet the security interests of the parties. The authors conclude that the starting point for creating a new CACE regime could be agreements on medium-range strike systems of various types of basing that do not distinguish between nuclear and conventional systems. Such a solution is achievable, primarily, in the mode of the Russia U.S. bilateral negotiations, which would simplify the task of reaching effective agreements and would also give an impetus for subsequent negotiations on nuclear weapons when the relations between the parties are normalized.