Взаємодія фактичних і припустимих показників ерозійно-гідрологічних процесів на імовірнісній основі

Abstract

The purpose. To determine influence of interaction of actual and admissible indexes on development of erosion-hydrological processes with the purpose of their minimization on a probable basis. Methods. On laboratory-field, mathematical-statistical, topometric, morphological methods they studied erosion-hydrological situations on basin principle at different hierarchical levels (drainage basin natural boundary reservoir), interaction of actual and admissible indexes of erosion-hydrological processes. Results. By means of creation of hyper surfaces of response of combinations of components of agrolandscapes of reservoirs of basin of river Aydar and factors of formation of Qmax on hydroposts (Belolutsk, Kuriachovka, Starobelsk, Bakhmutovka) they analyzed interaction of actual and admissible indexes of erosion-hydrological processes on 1–50% level of probability. Such regularities were fixed: 1) at high plough up of reservoirs of Starobelsk and Bakhmut hydroposts (accordingly 65–75 and 70–80%) with use in ploughland of downslopes more than 18 — 40–55% expenditures of drainage of 10% probability are maximum (25–58 and 38–63 m3/s); 2) decrease of plough up of reservoirs of Kuriachovka hydropost up to 55–60% decrease the maximum expenditures of drainage of 10% probability up to 10–15 m3/s at use in ploughland of downslopes more than 1/ — 45–55% from reservoir; 3) high plough up of reservoir of Belolutsk hydropost (65–75%) are run a level by use in ploughland of slope lands more than 17 within the limits of 35–45% in formation of the maximum losses of drainage of 10% probability up to 16–36 m3/s. Such regularity of formation of the maximum losses of drainage is observed and at other probabilities of their development. Conclusions. Study of ratio of prognostic (admissible) and actual characteristics of combinations of components of agrolandscape (40–60% of ploughland, 35–40% of downslopes more than 1w, 0,3–0,5% of forest belts of cross arrangement on the background of humus 3,5–5,5% at the level of 10% probability of the maximum losses of drainage) testify to their objective effect and decrease of hydrological characteristics on 65–75% up to the level of low indexes of expenditures of drainage: 3–5 m3/s — Belolutsk, Kuriachovka, and 10–15 m3/s — Starobelsk, Bakhmutovka hydroposts.